Oil Supply Forecasting: A Disaggregated Process Approach
Volume: Volume 9, No. 1
Issue: Spring 1978
Pages: pp. 218-235
Authors: Paul L. Eckbo, Henry D. Jacoby, and James L. Smith
Title: Oil Supply Forecasting: A Disaggregated Process Approach
Abstract: Work is under way on a forecasting method that incorporates explicit representations of the steps in the oil supply process: exploration, reservoir development, and production. The discovery history of a region and other geological data are inputs to a statistical analysis of the exploratory process. The resulting estimate of the size distribution of new reservoirs is combined with an evaluation of reservoir economies -- taking account of engineering cost, oil price, and taxes. The model produces a forecast of additions to the productive reserve base and oil supply. Progress to date is demonstrated in an application to the North Sea.
JEL Classification
Specific Forecasts and Models (1323)
Energy (7230)