A "Generalization" of the Logistic Curves and Long-Range Forecasts (1966-1991) of Residence Telephones
Volume: Volume 2, No. 2
Issue: Autumn 1971
Pages: pp. 542-560
Authors: Roshan L. Chaddha and Sharad S. Chitgopekar
Title: A "Generalization" of the Logistic Curves and Long-Range Forecasts (1966-1991) of Residence Telephones
Abstract:
This paper investigates the development of a class of models suggested by an
application of the logistic curve to model the growth of Bell System residence
telephones. These models are expected to be more flexible than the "S"-shaped
logistic curve. They allow the "potential expansion of growth" to be a
function of a number of economic and sociological variables, e.g., the number
of households, per capita disposable income, average revenue per telephone,
etc. This approach resulted in the development of a useful model for
forecasting Bell System residence telephones.
In addition, a new technique for testing the hypothesis that the saturation
level in a logistic function is constant is proposed. A discussion of the
statistical properties of the estimates is also included.