The Effect of the Removal of the Firemen on Railroad Accidents, 1962-1967
Volume: Volume 2, No. 2
Issue: Autumn 1971
Pages: pp. 470-494
Authors: Franklin M. Fisher and Gerald Kraft
Title: The Effect of the Removal of the Firemen on Railroad Accidents, 1962-1967
Abstract:
In November 1963, Arbitration Award 282 allowed U.S. railroads to remove some
firemen from locomotive cabs. In the following year total hours of fireman
employment declined by 20 percent and by 1967 there was less than one-half the
1963-fireman hours worked. During the same period, accidents on U.S. railroads
increased by 50 percent, a significant point in the labor dispute. This
article seeks to establish whether the relationship between the decrease in the
employment of firemen and the increase in rail accidents is statistically
significant.
A ratio model is used that compares pre-Award values of accident rates, rail
activity, and crew makeup to post-Award values of the same variables. By using
a ratio model the variables that differ among railroads (e.g., terrain) can be
controlled without the introduction of large numbers of descriptive variables,
while influences common to all railroads (e.g., inflation or average weather)
can be absorbed into the constant term. The model is estimated using data from
1962-1963 (pre-Award) and 1965-1966 and 1966-1967 (post-Award). The results
indicate that the fireman removal has had a significant effect on rail
collisions and that where railroads chose to lengthen trains rather than
increase employment by hiring more crews, derailments increased.